More Accurate Real-Time Hurricane Loss Estimates with HWind Forecasting Footprints

During and following real-time events, expectations from (re)insurers, policyholders, and investors are at an all-time high for timely, accurate information.

To ensure better data-driven decisions, the window to analyze and respond to disasters is shrinking, making it imperative to grasp the potential ramifications of such events in near real-time - before, during, and after they happen.

As Florida anticipates the landfall of dangerous Major Hurricane Milton, with the introduction of our updated Moody’s RMS HWind forecasting products for the 2024 season – featuring new combined (forecast and trailing) loss-producing footprints – this is a timely opportunity to enable more accurate real-time loss estimates. 

With this next phase of HWind innovation available on Moody's Intelligent Risk Platform, we can announce that loss-producing HWind forecasting products are now integrated within the Risk Modeler application.

This supports bulk footprint analyses, also known as Ensemble Conditional Exceedance Probability (CEP), and enables automation of event response processes via an API. These represent a significant step forward from a reliance on Similar Stochastic Events which may not adequately affect the actual characteristics of a landfalling hurricane.

HWind Forecasting Products in Risk Modeler

HWind hurricane footprints capable of generating modeled losses consistent with the modeled vulnerabilities in Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models are now uploaded to Risk Modeler as they become available.

This includes HWind forecasting products for real-time events that reflect potential onshore wind and/or storm surge losses for a variety of individual scenarios:

 a) forward-looking forecast over the next 5-days

 b) the trailing portion of the event footprint to date over modeled onshore regions, or

 c) the combined forecast and trailing components of an event footprint.

All these loss-producing HWind products are consistent with Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. This integration further simplifies and streamlines a core component of an event response workflow by removing the need to download or upload manually into risk modeling software.

The HWind forecasting and trailing footprints reflect a more accurate representation of the event, as they are based on actual event information, compared to similar stochastic events:

• Ensemble Conditional Exceedance Probability (CEP) - We have further enhanced this workflow with the addition of the Ensemble Conditional Exceedance Probability (CEP) analysis type for Risk Modeler. This allows catastrophe modelers to run ensemble footprints as a single bulk analysis (as opposed to several individual analyses),additionally enabling a probabilistic view of the range of losses.
• Automated Workflows - And finally, by using APIs customers can begin automating much of the workflow required to run analyses for HWind in Risk Modeler, enabling insights to be derived faster and with more time to be spent digging into the insights rather than running analyses.

Expanding your analysis functionality further, a major hurdle to overcome is the reliance on legacy technology.

Whether it’s aging software infrastructure, or manual steps and procedures to analyze available data, these things can slow down business responsiveness, bring in new sources of uncertainty or unforeseen errors, and monopolize the time and resources of risk management teams.

Moody’s has been addressing this market need since 2021 by automatically ingesting all pre- and post-landfall hurricane event response products – including HWind – into the ExposureIQ application on the Intelligent Risk Platform as the data layers become available (Figure 1).

It’s not just ExposureIQ and HWind though. We also make available critical event response tools and functionality in Risk Modeler, including single footprint analysis, and stochastic Conditional Exceedance Probability (also known as the Stochastic Exceedance Probability, or STEP Tool), to support real-time, loss-based insights from the Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.

With their exposure of interest (e.g. policyholder, cedant, industry exposure) already uploaded into the same applications, (re)insurers can:

• Within ExposureIQ, visualize and quantify exposure accumulations at risk and their potential financial implications
• Within Risk Modeler, quantify potential modeled industry or portfolio losses
• Secure and position recovery assets (e.g. claims adjusters)
• Implement temporary changes to underwriting guidelines
• Plan policyholder outreach
• Determine the status of parametric deals
• Ensure clear communication with internal and external stakeholders

Digitizing the Event Response for North America Hurricanes

Hurricane event response continues to demand fast, accurate, and reliable information.

Workflow optimization during and following real-time events, especially during a season like 2024 with multiple landfalling U.S. hurricanes is important. The continuous monitoring of dynamic tropical cyclone characteristics to support real-time event preparation and response is the norm.

Moody’s integration of event response tools like HWind into ExposureIQ and Risk Modeler platform applications provides a means to enhance operational efficiency and reduce the time it takes to gain necessary insights into potential impacts.

From automating the setup and execution of analyses to utilizing real-time analytics like the HWind forecasting products, based on actual forecast and observed event parameters to quantify potential losses, these improvements to the process allow users to take action on those insights sooner, with more certainty.

Interested in learning more about HWind or the other products and applications mentioned?

Please contact your account representative or sales@moodys.com.