NEWARK, CA – May 5, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, revealed that according to its new Climate Change Models, and based on today’s exposures, insured average annual losses (AAL) from North Atlantic Hurricane wind could increase by as much as 24 percent by 2050*, and European Flood risk AAL could increase by up to 59 percent by 2050**, based on no mitigating factors taken.
The new RMS Climate Change Models combine the RMS financial impact modeling framework with the best climate science consensus, including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Generally available in June 2021, these models provide the most comprehensive climate change insights for North Atlantic Hurricane, Europe Inland Flood, and Europe Windstorm. Each model quantifies and differentiates the impacts of acute physical risk due to variable potential climate change scenarios (known as Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs), different time horizons, and within specific regions. This means that organizations can make more informed decisions about the impact of climate change on different physical assets and portfolios, including residential and commercial properties, warehouses, and retail chains. Further climate change models and geographies will follow this initial model suite launch.
The new RMS Climate Change Models, data, and analytics empower boardrooms and organizations to:
Commenting on the RMS Climate Change Solutions, Tom Fink, senior vice president and managing director at Trepp, said: “Our clients in the banking and commercial real estate markets are working to quantify their exposure to environmental risks. By incorporating the RMS climate risks analytics, Trepp can better help the investment and financial services industry understand the physical risks posed by a changing climate.”
Speaking at the annual RMS Exceedance conference, RMS chief research officer, Robert Muir-Wood, said: “Unpacking the risks from climate change includes many individual perils, components, and situations, some of which are profoundly non-linear. Also, when mediated through tropical cyclone size, intensity and track, winter storms or major river floods, the relationship between climate parameters and their impacts becomes highly complex and can only be captured in a full catastrophe modeling capability that we are now delivering. Clear metrics on current and future climate perils, such as those available with the RMS Climate Change Models and Solutions, are becoming vital for the insurance industry, businesses, and investors globally. Increases in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have already driven businesses, investors, and regulators to try to assess what this means for their current and future operations.”
RMS has been modeling natural catastrophe risk for the insurance industry for more than 30 years and has been leading research into the impact of climate change on catastrophe losses since its involvement in the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report. The RMS Climate Change Solutions also include climate change specialist advisory and consulting expertise as well as regulatory, ESG, and TCFD support.
Learn more about RMS Climate Change Solutions here: https://www.rms.com/climate-change
* For North Atlantic Hurricane the figures are for wind only and do not include storm surge or tropical cyclone-induced flooding. Exposure is based on the 2019 RMS Industry Exposure Database for all lines of business; further changes in losses would be expected from changes in exposure. The figures are based on an RCP 8.5 scenario.
** For European Flood, exposure is based on the 2020 RMS Industry Exposure Database for all lines of business; further changes in losses would be expected from changes in exposure. The figures are based on an RCP 8.5 scenario. 59 percent is based on the very latest version of the EU FL climate change model.
NEWARK, CA – 19 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching new global views for acute and chronic perils and their climate change impact. RMS already offers a range of regional peril and climate change models, which support detailed acute physical loss modeling products, as well as data products covering hazard and risk scores, and loss costs for individual locations, across multiple time horizons. RMS climate change models and data products have been welcomed by the market, and allow users to stress test portfolio management, risk mitigation, and adaption strategies. The newly announced global views significantly extend RMS’s peril and climate change impact coverage to provide fully correlated global views of risk, and include event frequency and severity, and analysis for current baseline and future climate views. With these new global views, RMS not only delivers a view of risk for acute peril-specific risks, but also chronic risks such as drought, heat stress, water stress, and sea-level rise. This global peril coverage will enhance RMS’s applications on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ with the Risk Modeler™, ExposureIQ™, TreatyIQ™, SiteIQ™, and UnderwriteIQ™ applications delivering global insights in the future. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, said: “We are continuing to see growing demand for risk insights on acute and chronic perils and climate change, from investors and corporations across many industries such as banking, commercial real estate, and insurance. The effects of these risks will unfold over many years and will have many direct and indirect implications for both industry and society. We firmly believe that long-term strategies and decision making can only benefit from detailed and analytical insight into hazard and risk impacts for present and future climates.”
NEWARK, CA – 18 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, today announces it will be releasing four new High Definition™ (HD) models, including Europe Windstorm, North America Winterstorm (WT), North America Severe Convective Storm (SCS), and Terrorism. RMS HD Models represent the next generation of risk modeling, delivering deeper analysis and granularity from Moody's. The HD probabilistic models incorporate a high-fidelity, simulation-based framework for modeling event frequency and severity, to provide a major step forward in the quality of catastrophe risk quantification. The framework allows for event footprints to be represented more realistically across larger event sets. The new RMS Europe Windstorm HD Model further enhances the current model and will cover 17 countries, adding Finland and Lichtenstein. The HD model includes a climate variability view and has expanded storm surge analytics to include the U.K., Ireland, France, and Belgium. Storm clustering will be modeled natively within the HD framework, together with an option to run the model without clustering. Industrial facilities, builders’ risk, and marine cargo will also all be covered. With the new model RMS will be able to offer a complete High-Definition solution for all atmospheric climate perils across Europe including Europe SCS HD Model, Europe Windstorm HD Model - and the Europe Flood HD Model, which was particularly relevant during the Berndt flooding in 2021. The exceptionally high insured losses from the U.S. severe winter weather event of February 2021 placed the winter storm peril in sharp focus. Both the RMS North America Winterstorm and RMS North America SCS HD Models benefit from a simulation-based framework that better represents the time-dependent nature of SCS/WT event frequency and hazard. This includes event clustering, seasonality, and the representation of cumulative hazard such as multi-day SCS outbreaks, or the cumulative snow buildup on a building due to multiple snowfalls. RMS launched its market-leading Terrorism Model in 2002, to help firms better manage exposed risks and quantify losses and casualties due to macro terrorism. As part of the suite of capabilities Moody's provides clients, the new RMS Terrorism HD Model offers increased transparency in exceedance probability (EP) generation, with outputs and analysis processes consistent with other RMS HD models. Workflow improvements include expanded financial model capabilities, multi-region selections, property and workers compensation in a single analysis, and introduces selectable causes of loss: conventional, fire only, or chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN). The planned general availability for the RMS Terrorism HD Model will be in 2022, Europe Windstorm HD Model in 2023, and North America Winterstorm and North America Severe Convective Storm in 2024. Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, Model Production Management, RMS, said: “The RMS High Definition Models are delivering a step-change in risk analysis across the insurance industry. All the technological capabilities within the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ support the RMS HD model enhancements for clients. These model announcements build on Moody’s continued commitment to bringing reliable and precise analytics to the modelers, underwriters, the C-suite, and across the industry. RMS has always invested in leading science and technology to ensure that clients have some of the best information available to help them with their risk decisions.”
NEWARK, CA – 17 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching a new application, UnderwriteIQ™, hosted on the cloud-based RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™. UnderwriteIQ enables underwriters to have greater control of risks by bringing hazard, exposure, and loss data together in the underwriting process at the point of decision – all based on RMS model science and data. The new application will allow underwriters to price with confidence, enable consistent risk decisions, and improve operational efficiency. The application is hosted on the modular and unified RMS Intelligent Risk Platform (IRP). The platform provides proprietary and tertiary data analytics to rapidly generate high-resolution risk insights via applications that meet underwriting and portfolio management needs. Moe Khosravy, Executive Vice President, Software and Platform, RMS, said: “The growth in adoption of the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has been phenomenal. A substantial number of clients are benefiting from the secure cloud-based platform that provides superior advanced analytics through a single holistic enterprise risk management system, without the hardware and software maintenance required for on-premise offerings. IRP easily integrates into existing systems and its modular design allows users to license and use only the required applications or APIs.” UnderwriteIQ is the latest addition to the RMS IQ application suite, which also includes TreatyIQ™ and ExposureIQ™. The TreatyIQ application allows users to rapidly design and analyze both simple and complex treaty program structures, as well as import and leverage any modeled loss data, adapted to a user’s view of risk. An intuitive, underwriter-centric user experience supports customized pricing and capital metrics and can display rapid roll-up results, with analytics on aggregate positions and the performance of risk capital. ExposureIQ allows users to manage both reinsurance and insurance accumulations within one application, building structures that represent their business hierarchies in an intuitive way. The application also provides near real-time catastrophe event visualization using a powerful mapping module that directly integrates RMS Event Response and RMS HWind data. ExposureIQ makes business-wide exposure management faster and more accurate, allowing for easy identification of the key drivers of accumulations and portfolio trends, and analysis of deterministic losses across any region in the world. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, concluded: “The RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has gone from strength to strength since it was launched in 2018, as can be seen by its adoption across the insurance market. Powered by RMS models, science, and technology, UnderwriteIQ is a welcome addition to the existing IQ applications suite, delivering business value, end-to-end consistency, and an improved client experience. RMS plans to always continue to invest in and deliver the technology, science, and solutions that help our clients make better risk decisions.”