Version 21.0 of RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models Certified by Florida Hurricane Commission on Loss Projection Methodology

NEWARK, CA – June 8, 2021 – Today, RMS^®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced that Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models was approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 1, 2021, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.

The certification applies to Version 21.0 hurricane models available on RiskLink® 21.0 and the Risk Modeler application on the RMS open cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™. This multi-environment approval builds on the successes of the Version 18.1 FCHLPM certification in 2019, when RMS became the first catastrophe risk modeling and solutions firm to have its hurricane models certified for use simultaneously on both on-premises and cloud software.

Matthew Nielsen, senior director, regulatory affairs, RMS, said: “Obtaining FCHLPM certification is a key milestone in the development and go-to-market process of our hurricane models. It underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models, based on industry-leading science, data, methods, engineering, and software. The certification also has implications for other regions, as many other states affected by hurricanes look to Florida’s model certification process as a first step for their own state approvals.”

On May 5, 2021, RMS announced updates to Version 21.0 of its hurricane models. Informed by new data and learnings from recent impactful seasons, including more than US$6 billion in new claims data, the updated hurricane models allow RMS to continue providing the (re)insurance market with the most comprehensive view of the hurricane risk landscape.

Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models Suite, said: “The updates in Version 21.0 include the latest insights into current and evolving market conditions in risk-prone areas. For instance, recent changes to the statewide building code in Florida have extended the geographical applicability of roof replacement requirements throughout the state. Initial assessments suggest this may drive material increases on overall claim severity, because it means a roof that might experience as little as 25% damage is required to be replaced in full. In Version 21, alongside our reference view of vulnerability, we've introduced a new alternative view of vulnerability for residential lines in Florida to help clients understand the sensitivities of these potential impacts to their books.”

Other enhancements in Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models include:

• Long-term event rates updates to incorporate two new seasons of hurricane activity (2017-2018) from the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) data.
• New medium-term rate forecast for 2021-2025 informed by data-driven updates, including the latest historical Atlantic Basin hurricane data through the record-breaking 2020 season.
• New historical event reconstructions from recent seasons, including hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), and Michael (2018).
• Vulnerability updates in the Caribbean based on new claims data and learnings from the impactful 2017-2018 seasons.

Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer and executive vice president, models and data, RMS said: “As the 2021 hurricane season is now underway, it’s important to remember that hurricane is one of the biggest drivers of annual insured losses throughout the North Atlantic Basin. Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models incorporates important learnings and insights from the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, including the most new claims data and event rates informed by data from the most recent 2020 season. These advantages help give (re)insurers a more comprehensive view of risk applicable at the point of underwriting through to portfolio management and risk transfer decisions." 

The FCHLPM certification of Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models will be valid until November 1, 2023. Version 21.0 will be generally available on June 23, 2021, on both RiskLink and Risk Modeler simultaneously.

Learn more about the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models here.

The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.

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