NEWARK, CA – September 23, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that the total U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Nicholas to be between US$1.1 and US$2.2 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Nicholas made landfall on September 14, 2021 near Sargent Beach, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h). The storm brought hurricane-force winds, prolonged heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast, including many areas in southern Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida, as well as Hurricanes’ Laura and Delta (2020).
Total insured loss estimates for Hurricane Nicholas (US$ billions):
|Wind + Surge||Private Inland Flood||NFIP||Total|
|0.7 – 1.4||0.2 – 0.3||0.2 – 0.5||1.1 – 2.2|
RMS estimates US$700 million to US$1.4 billion in privately insured wind and storm surge losses based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Nicholas’ hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The precipitation-induced inland flooding losses were generated using footprints from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
RMS modelers developed and validated the wind, storm surge, and inland flood reconstructions and corresponding loss estimates using publicly available observations, including wind stations, rivers water level gauge data, and web reconnaissance.
“A notable impact from this event is the rainfalls, especially in Louisiana, where many towns and cities are still in the early stages of recovery after Hurricane Ida. RMS event response teams estimate roughly 40 percent of postal codes in Louisiana that were impacted by flooding in Nicholas were also impacted by flooding from Ida a few weeks earlier. We expect the overlapping nature of these two storms to further amplify losses, including the risk of rainfall infiltration, and to prolong the claims settlement process,” says Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
The estimate also includes US$200 – $500 million in losses for NFIP in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico region. NFIP losses were derived using RMS’ view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, Version 21 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and considers sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA). RMS expects the majority of wind and storm surge losses to come from Texas, and the majority of the NFIP and insured flood losses to come from Louisiana.
Hurricane Nicholas was the fourteenth named storm of the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season and the sixth hurricane. It was the second hurricane to make landfall this season.
RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.
The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
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LONDON – 3 August, 2022 – Covenant Underwriters, the e-commerce insurance program administrator, is using Location Intelligence API from RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, to provide real-time premium indications to its clients during the quotation process. RMS Location Intelligence API offers market-leading, high-resolution, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics delivered directly into underwriting workflows. Clients using Location Intelligence API benefit from trusted model data to help customize pricing for each policy, helping avoid adverse selection and to provide greater opportunities for dynamic pricing. Location Intelligence API is available in multiple countries and covers key modeled perils like hurricane, flood, earthquake, wildfire, convective storm, and more. Daniel Murray, Chief Underwriter at Covenant Underwriters, said: “Covenant has developed an API-powered rating algorithm that leverages big data and artificial intelligence to produce an instant price indication for any given address. Using an application programming interface (API) to integrate RMS knowledge and insight directly into the Covenant platform, enables our retail brokers to craft the winning terms during the quote process.” Marisa Ruscitto, Managing Director, RMS, said: “The RMS Location Intelligence API enables users to benefit from a competitive advantage with real-time, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics. Using these metrics not only helps with risk selection but also pricing, screening, and referrals. As underwriting workflows automate rapidly, an increasing number of industry leaders are adopting real-time underwriting processes and decision-making capability to quickly match risk to capital, and to better support their clients and their business.” About Covenant Underwriters Based in Houston, Texas, Covenant Underwriters develops and administers e-commerce insurance programs that leverage custom forms, cutting-edge technology, and niche underwriting to make specialty insurance easy for retail brokers. Current niche programs include commercial package policies for limited-service hotels and convenience stores with gas stations. Visit Covenant Underwriters for more information.
NEWARK, CA – 19 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching new global views for acute and chronic perils and their climate change impact. RMS already offers a range of regional peril and climate change models, which support detailed acute physical loss modeling products, as well as data products covering hazard and risk scores, and loss costs for individual locations, across multiple time horizons. RMS climate change models and data products have been welcomed by the market, and allow users to stress test portfolio management, risk mitigation, and adaption strategies. The newly announced global views significantly extend RMS’s peril and climate change impact coverage to provide fully correlated global views of risk, and include event frequency and severity, and analysis for current baseline and future climate views. With these new global views, RMS not only delivers a view of risk for acute peril-specific risks, but also chronic risks such as drought, heat stress, water stress, and sea-level rise. This global peril coverage will enhance RMS’s applications on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ with the Risk Modeler™, ExposureIQ™, TreatyIQ™, SiteIQ™, and UnderwriteIQ™ applications delivering global insights in the future. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, said: “We are continuing to see growing demand for risk insights on acute and chronic perils and climate change, from investors and corporations across many industries such as banking, commercial real estate, and insurance. The effects of these risks will unfold over many years and will have many direct and indirect implications for both industry and society. We firmly believe that long-term strategies and decision making can only benefit from detailed and analytical insight into hazard and risk impacts for present and future climates.”