Access all customer product support, event response, and training in one placeLifeRisks Portal
Find modeling tools based on best practice actuarial techniques and medical scienceMiu Portal
Explore analytics and risk insights for the alternative capital market
Newark, CA – November 16, 2022 - RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and a world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, estimates total private market U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Nicole to be less than US$2 billion, with the best estimate of US$1.6 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding.
Total insured loss estimates for Hurricane Nicole (US$ billions):
|Wind (incl. coverage leakage) + Surge||Inland Flood excl. NFIP||Total excl. NFIP||Best Estimate|
|Private Market Insured Loss||1.2 – 1.8||< 0.1||1.3 – 1.9||1.6|
RMS estimates privately insured wind and storm surge losses of US$1.2 billion to US$1.8 billion from Hurricane Nicole, based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Nicole’s hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge.
RMS modelers developed and validated the wind, storm surge, and inland flood reconstructions and corresponding loss estimates using publicly available observations, including wind stations, river gauge water level data, and web reconnaissance.
Jeff Waters, Staff Product Manager, North Atlantic Hurricane Models, RMS, said: “Even though Hurricane Nicole was much less intense than Hurricane Ian a few weeks prior, it exhibited a large wind field that impacted many of the same areas in Florida. RMS Event Response teams estimate that roughly 98 percent of postal codes in Florida impacted by Nicole were previously impacted by Hurricane Ian. Similar to other overlapping events from previous seasons, such as Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas in 2021, and Laura and Delta in 2020, we expect the overlapping nature of Hurricane Ian and Nicole to introduce significant uncertainties in the loss attribution and claims settlement process.”
Additionally, RMS estimates losses for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) from Nicole to be less than US$300 million, and primarily in Florida and Georgia. These losses were derived using the RMS view of NFIP exposure based on policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 21 RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and consider sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA), inflationary trends, and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects the majority of wind and storm surge losses to come from Florida, and the majority of the NFIP and insured flood losses to come from both Florida and Georgia.
“Historically, an event of Hurricane Nicole’s magnitude would not exhibit notable PLA impacts if it were to occur on its own. However, the fact that it closely follows a major event with Hurricane Ian, means that the same factors influencing PLA from Ian also apply to Nicole, including shortages of labor, materials, and claims adjusters. This is an example of compounding PLA effects,” said Sarah Hartley, Manager, Event Response, RMS.
Hurricane Nicole was the fourteenth-named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season, the eighth hurricane, and the second hurricane to make U.S. landfall this season. Nicole made landfall on November 10, 2022, near Vero Beach, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h).
The storm brought a combination of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall to coastal and inland areas of Florida, including many that are still recovering from Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Nicole briefly re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm before weakening to a tropical depression and moving back onshore, tracking northward through the southeast U.S., the Carolinas, and mid-Atlantic regions.
Prior to impacting the U.S., Hurricane Nicole hit parts of the Bahamas as both a tropical storm and Category 1 hurricane. However, RMS expected insured losses to be minimal in that region.
There are two weeks left in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30.
RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling hurricanes provide a comprehensive view, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.
The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS, AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY, AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
LONDON – MAY 25, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, is announcing that risk models from Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), Fathom, and JBA Risk Management (JBA) are all to be made available as a technology preview on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ (IRP), following the integration of the IRP into the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) Risk Modelling for Catastrophes (NRMC) service. This announcement builds on an earlier Moody’s RMS announcement on enhancing the IRP by integrating the NRMC service for Oasis Loss Modelling Framework-based risk models. When the solution is fully developed, and subject to the necessary agreements being put in place between Moody's RMS and its partners for the integration, customers who subscribe to the solution will be able to use Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform applications such as Risk Modeler™, UnderwriteIQ™, and TreatyIQ™ for unified execution of Moody’s RMS models, as well as ARA, Fathom, and JBA Risk Management models, running on the Nasdaq modeling service based on the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework (LMF), and other custom models and modeling engines. George Freimarck, Business Leader for Catastrophe Models at ARA, said: “North Atlantic hurricane remains the single largest region-peril risk for most property insurers. The ability to directly incorporate and blend results from multiple credible hurricane models on a single platform will help clients understand and manage that risk. The integration of ARA models into the IRP opens a wide range of options and possibilities for risk professionals and clients while removing burdensome technology integration.” Dr. Andrew Smith, Co-Founder, and Chief Operations Officer at Fathom, said: “We welcome the ecosystem innovation that Moody’s RMS, working with Nasdaq, is bringing to the risk market, model users, and modelers. We believe it will be incredibly attractive for customers to access multiple views of risk through the same interface, so we were excited when Moody’s RMS approached Fathom to help test the modeling engine’s capabilities and for our flood model to become one of the first to be integrated into the IRP." "The standardizing and simplifying of multi-vendor exposure and results data offers greater flexibility and efficiencies for risk professionals. All model users, and all those transacting in risk, will gain from friction-free model interoperability and unification of risk standards that this will deliver.” Jane Toothill, Managing Director at JBA Risk Management, said: “We are excited to see the integration of Moody’s IRP into Nasdaq’s NRMC as it means our suite of global flood models will be more easily accessible to mutual clients. The ability to run multiple models on the same platform will provide many benefits to the insurance and risk industries." "Greater modeling flexibility, improved efficiencies, and streamlined costs of ownership will all make significant differences, and by helping clients build reliance and promote mitigation measures, insurers can better prepare themselves and their clients against potentially catastrophic events.” Cihan Biyikoglu, Executive Vice President - Product, at Moody’s RMS, said: “With this initiative, we are hoping to create more opportunities for innovation in the global risk market, and we are delighted to be working with ARA, Fathom, and JBA. Moody’s RMS recognizes that customers often want to incorporate multiple models for a multitude of reasons, including hedging model risk and creating their own view of risk for a differentiated risk strategy." "We are making this much easier for our clients by allowing them to consolidate their modeling systems into a single unified experience and limiting the burden of complex data conversion between different exposure and loss data formats." "This will help them to free up IT budgets dedicated to maintaining multiple modeling environments, as well as allowing their catastrophe modelers better insights for risk selection, pricing, and transfer decisions. We are also working with additional model vendors and look forward to further announcements as this initiative continues to accelerate.” To learn more about third-party modeling on the Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform, please visit rms.com. END About Moody’s RMS Moody’s RMS shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector, with Moody’s RMS models underlying the nearly $2 trillion USD Property and Casualty industry. Moody’s RMS empowers organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics. Moody’s RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry and continues to lead in innovation, unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Organizations can address the risks of tomorrow with the Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence. Further supporting the industry’s transition to modern risk management, in 2020, Moody’s RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems. In 2021, Moody’s Corporation acquired Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and as part of Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s RMS serves the P&C insurance industry as the leading provider of expertise, science, and technology in integrated risk. A trusted solutions partner, Moody’s RMS enables effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management. Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter. ©2023 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its affiliates and licensors (“Moody’s RMS”). All rights reserved. All names, logos, and icons identifying Moody’s RMS and/or its products and services are trademarks of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its licensors or affiliates. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Risk Management Solutions, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency. About ARA Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) was founded in 1979, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to offer science and engineering research to solve problems of national importance. ARA delivers leading-edge products and innovative solutions for national defense, energy, homeland security, aerospace, healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, and insurance. ARA’s wind engineering expertise and its state-of-the-art hurricane model, HurLoss®, provide an independent and highly respected view of hurricane risk to structural engineers, emergency managers, energy producers, and property insurers. With over 1,700 employee-owners at locations in the U.S. and Canada, ARA offers a broad range of technical expertise in defense technologies, civil engineering, computer software and simulation, systems analysis, biomedical engineering, environmental technologies, and blast testing and measurement. For more information, visit https://ara.com About Fathom Fathom gives risk management professionals the most scientifically robust tools and intelligence for understanding the climate’s impact on water risk. By publishing cutting-edge, peer-reviewed academic research and applying it to real-world challenges, Fathom powers better decision-making for (re)insurance, financial markets, corporate risk, civil engineering, disaster response, and government. Fathom’s dedicated team of scientists harness their passion for innovation and the environment to develop rigorous catastrophe models and comprehensive mapping and geospatial data that make a real-world difference to customers and communities worldwide. For more information visit https://www.fathom.global About JBA Risk Management JBA Risk Management is the global leader in flood risk science. Offering best-in-class flood maps, models, analytics, and consultancy services to help users understand flood risk today and in the future, JBA works with some of the world’s largest organizations in the insurance and financial sectors, including mortgage providers, property search companies, governments, the international banking community, and NGOs. With a collaborative team of expert scientists, hydrologists, mathematicians, and engineers, JBA uses pioneering science to stay at the forefront of flood modeling innovation. Headquartered in the U.K. with offices in Asia Pacific, the U.S. and Europe, JBA Risk Management is part of the JBA Group, which was founded in 1995. For more information, visit https://jbarisk.com
NEWARK, CA – February 23, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, estimates economic losses from the moment magnitude (Mw) Mw7.8 and Mw7.5 earthquakes that struck southern Turkey on Monday, February 6 are likely to exceed US$25 billion (TL₺471 billion), and the total insured loss is likely to exceed US$5 billion (TL₺94 billion). These loss estimates reflect the impact of the earthquakes in Turkey only; losses in Syria are not included. The insured losses include those to private insurers as well as to the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP). The loss estimates are based on an analysis of the earthquake sequence using Moody’s RMS Europe Earthquake Models and reflect damage to property and contents, and business interruption, across residential, commercial, and industrial lines in Turkey. These estimates do not include post-event loss amplification or losses to non-modeled exposures such as transport and utility infrastructure. On Monday, February 6, an Mw7.8 earthquake struck east of the Turkish city of Nurdaği, triggering a strong earthquake sequence. This included an Mw7.5 earthquake that struck south-southeast of Ekinözü, Turkey. These earthquakes occurred in southern Turkey near the northern border with Syria, causing widespread and severe damage across Turkey and northern Syria, with shaking felt as far away as Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel, and the State of Palestine. The events ruptured multiple faults across the broad East Anatolia fault zone. The region is recognized as having a high earthquake hazard, with multiple earthquakes of Mw7.0 or greater since the nineteenth century. Nilesh Shome, Vice President of Earthquake Model Development at Moody’s RMS said: “The earthquakes ruptured geometrically complex faults with multiple branches and were part of an active sequence that included over 400 events of Mw4 or greater. It is very unusual for an earthquake to trigger another event of such a magnitude as the Mw7.5 earthquake. The two largest earthquakes generated significant ground motions, and many areas were impacted by both events.” The devastation was widespread. According to the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, 11 provinces were severely affected by the earthquakes, and the damage was worst in Gaziantep, Hatay, and Kahramanmaraş. As of February 22, over 335,000 buildings are reported to have been damaged. A unique contributor to the overall loss is that most of the economic losses due to shaking can be attributed to structures with severe damage that have either already collapsed or will require demolition. Observations from early damage reports issued by the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, and Turkish research reconnaissance indicate a systemic lack of adherence to seismic provisions, including government ‘amnesty’ programs that have allowed continued occupancy of structures that do not meet seismic design requirements. Ongoing research will aim to understand the full extent of these code lapses, together with any future code updates and enforcement mechanisms that could arise from this event. Moody's RMS anticipates that any tightening of the codes or more stringent enforcement will likely increase repair and rebuild times, especially as the number of destroyed structures is so extensive. The damage reports to date suggest that mid- and high-rise buildings contribute significantly to the overall event loss. The road to recovery in Turkey will take several years due to the scale of the damage, and complex macroeconomic conditions that existed prior to the events, including significant inflation, will hamper the reconstruction and add to the overall costs. Laura Barksby, Product Manager, Moody’s RMS, concluded: “The events highlighted the devastation that can arise when large magnitude events coincide with vulnerable building stock. We continue to learn from each significant earthquake, and the events in Turkey act as a wake-up call for other earthquake-prone regions, particularly concerning the true quality of the building stock.” END The technology and data used in providing this information are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. MOODY’S RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS, AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL MOODY’S RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.  Source: https://www.csb.gov.tr/  Source: Middle East Technical University Preliminary Reconnaissance Report on February 6, 2023  Source: Construction Amnesty