2022 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook

For over a decade, RMS has published an overview of North Atlantic seasonal activity forecasts and summarized the key oceanic and meteorological drivers behind the predictions.

For the upcoming season, RMS Event Response has released the executive summary of the 2022 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook report. Expanded in 2021 to cover seasonal forecasts in the Asia-Pacific region, the report again includes the latest forecasts of 2022 Western North Pacific typhoon activity.

RMS and the (re)insurance industry are no strangers to active hurricane seasons. If current forecasts verify, 2022 would be a record seventh consecutive above-normal season in the Atlantic Basin, extending the current ongoing record of six seasons beginning in 2016.

The 2022 report includes:

• Easy-to-read summary of the latest available North Atlantic Basin forecasts from 11 forecasting agencies and groups including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University (CSU), and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), along with climatological averages and 2021’s activity count.
• Latest available Western North Pacific Basin forecasts, along with climatological averages and 2021’s activity count.
• Analysis of key oceanic and atmospheric drivers of 2022 forecasts in both the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Basins, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperatures.
• Closer look at NOAA’s 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season forecast
• Review of landfall forecasts in the North Atlantic Basin from CSU, TSR, and AccuWeather.
• Basics of dynamical weather models and statistical models

As a trusted partner, RMS is ready to inform your critical business processes with reliable information during the year’s most impactful events.

For RMS clients, the full report is available to download on our customer portal, RMS Owl in the “Resources” tab of the “Event Response” section.