2023 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Outlook

For over a decade, Moody’s RMS^TM has published an overview of North Atlantic seasonal activity forecasts and summarized the key oceanic and meteorological drivers behind the predictions. Expanded in 2021 to cover seasonal forecasts in the Asia-Pacific region, the report again includes the latest forecasts of 2023 Western North Pacific typhoon activity. 

Despite being classified as a near-normal season in terms of overall tropical activity, 2022 will always be remembered by the insurance industry because of the impact and catastrophic damage caused by Hurricane Ian. Now the question on everyone’s mind is: Will the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season be as impactful and costly as 2020, 2021, and 2022? 

The 2023 report includes: 

• Easy-to-read summary of the latest available North Atlantic Basin forecasts from 11 forecasting agencies and groups including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University (CSU), and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). 
• Latest available Western North Pacific Basin forecasts, along with climatological averages and 2022’s activity count. 
• Analysis of key oceanic and atmospheric drivers of 2023 forecasts in both the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Basins, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperatures. 
• A closer look at NOAA’s 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season forecast. 
• As a trusted partner, Moody’s RMS is ready to inform your critical business processes with reliable information during the year’s most impactful events. 

  For Moody’s RMS clients, the full report is available to download on our Support Center, in the “Resources” tab of the “Event Response” section.