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September
Counterfactual Perspective on the Derna Flood Di...
A downward counterfactual is a thought about the past where things turned for the worse. Most thoughts about the past are upward, how things…
June
Critical Infrastructure Risk Tipping Points
The devastating breach of the Soviet-era Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine in the early hours of June 6, 2023, will…
September
Searching for Surprise Catastrophes: The Beirut ...
The history of catastrophe modeling over the past three decades, has been punctuated sporadically by catastrophes which have caused enormous…
July
London Bridge Terrorism Inquests: A Counterfactu...
The inquests into the deaths of eight individuals killed in a terrorist attack on London Bridge and in Borough Market on June 3, 2017, were…
April
Reimagining the 1918 Pandemic
Ask any child, a world without Walt Disney would be unimaginable. Born in December 1901, Walt was sixteen years old when he caught the 1918…
October
Reimagining History – Counterfactual Risk Analysis
Just under ten years ago, as the global financial crisis was unfolding, the book The Black Swan emerged as the most quoted critique of the…
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