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Tag: counterfactual analysis
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Counterfactual Perspective on the Derna Flood Di...
A downward counterfactual is a thought about the past where things turned for the worse. Most thoughts about the past are upward, how things…
Critical Infrastructure Risk Tipping Points
The devastating breach of the Soviet-era Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine in the early hours of June 6, 2023, will…
Searching for Surprise Catastrophes: The Beirut ...
The history of catastrophe modeling over the past three decades, has been punctuated sporadically by catastrophes which have caused enormous…
London Bridge Terrorism Inquests: A Counterfactu...
The inquests into the deaths of eight individuals killed in a terrorist attack on London Bridge and in Borough Market on June 3, 2017, were…
Reimagining the 1918 Pandemic
Ask any child, a world without Walt Disney would be unimaginable. Born in December 1901, Walt was sixteen years old when he caught the 1918…
Reimagining History – Counterfactual Risk Analysis
Just under ten years ago, as the global financial crisis was unfolding, the book The Black Swan emerged as the most quoted critique of the…
