Major Hurricane Milton: Live Blog

Welcome to our Major Hurricane Milton live blog, with regular updates from Moody's RMS Event Response team and Moody's experts – check back for the latest insights.

Tuesday, October 8: 18:30 UTC

Moody's RMS Event Response has issued its latest update on the status of Major Hurricane Milton, and its potential progress and impact. The update looks at its current status as it moves from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula: 

Milton underwent a period of extreme rapid intensification over the southwestern and southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, October 7, and intensified from a Category 1 hurricane into a Category 5 major hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Milton is currently a Category 4 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (250 kilometers per hour) located around 85 miles (140 kilometers) northeast of Progreso, Mexico. The system is currently impacting northern parts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with tropical-storm-force winds, but hurricane-force winds remain offshore.

With less than 48 hours until Milton makes its potential landfall on Florida's west coast, the update examines its forecast progress as it nears the coast:

Milton is forecast to turn east-northeast and then northeast across the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico over the coming days towards Florida, and is currently forecast to make landfall as a Category 3 major hurricane on the west coast of Florida at around 06:00 UTC (02:00 local time) on Thursday October 10, although the exact timing, location, and intensity at landfall remains uncertain.

The update also looks ahead to the potential impact of Milton, including damage from wind, coastal storm surge, and inland flood:

Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected to impact the west coast of Florida near to where the center makes landfall, and Milton is expected to produce a large area of destructive storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys through Thursday, October 10, which could cause life-threatening flash, urban, and areal flooding, and moderate to major river flooding.

Moody's clients can access detailed updates for Milton from the Support Center. including regular HWind wind field, footprint, and forecast data.

Clients who use the ExposureIQ application on the Intelligent Risk Platform with a valid HWind subscription can access HWind data directly into ExposureIQ.

Tuesday, October 8: 17:00 UTC

The Moody's HWind team has been publishing regularly updated wind field snapshots, footprints, and track forecasts for Major Hurricane Milton since it was named a tropical storm on Saturday, October 5. 

This latest HWind snapshot shown below, published at 12:00 UTC today, showed Milton as a Category 4 strength major hurricane, just north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.

Commenting on the snapshot, the HWind team stated that while an eyewall replacement cycle has lowered Milton's maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) down to 130 miles per hour, compared to previous HWind snapshots from 00:00 UTC, and 06:00 UTC today, Milton's wind field has expanded.

There has also been an increase in the tropical storm force Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) from 00:00, 06:00, and 12:00 UTC snapshots, increasing from seven to nine, and now to 15 terajoules (TJ) respectively.

Jeff Waters, Director - Product Management, for Moody's, who leads the North Atlantic Hurricane Model development, commented:

During real-time events like Hurricane Milton, Moody's HWind has continuous feeds to numerous sources of observational wind data.

The team uses this to produce snapshots and cumulative footprints on a 6-hourly cadence, allowing us and users to see the evolution of the wind field size and intensity over time - leading up to and following landfall - including periods of rapid intensification and eyewall replacement cycles."

HWind clients can access regular wind field, footprint, and forecast data for Milton from the Support Center. Clients who use the ExposureIQ application on the Intelligent Risk Platform with a valid HWind subscription can access HWind data directly into ExposureIQ.

Find out more about the latest HWind developments in Jeff Water's new blog here: "More Accurate Real-Time Hurricane Loss Estimates with HWind Forecasting Footprints."

Tuesday, October 8: 16:30 UTC

Major Hurricane Milton will potentially make landfall in Florida some 50-100 miles from where Major Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 strength hurricane in Florida's Big Bend on Thursday, September 26, 2024, a time gap of no more than two weeks.

In addition to Helene's destructive winds, Florida also received significant rainfall from Helene.

The National Weather Service rainfall records for 12:00 UTC on Wednesday, September 25, to 02:00 UTC on Saturday, September 28 showed locations such as Sumatra in Liberty County, Florida receiving 15.91 inches (404 mm) of rainfall during this period.

Although not as high as the 20-30 inches of rainfall in North Carolina for Helene, wet antecedent conditions in Florida from the previous hurricane, with saturated grounds and higher river levels, could raise the risk of significant inland flooding from Milton.

Firas Saleh, Director - Product Management, for Moody's, who leads the U.S. Flood HD Model development, commented:

As Major Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, regions already reeling from the impacts of Hurricane Helene brace for further challenges. Antecedent conditions in these areas will significantly influence the extent of inland flooding expected from Milton.

Many rivers are still swollen from the previous hurricane. The additional rainfall brought by Milton is likely to exacerbate these conditions, potentially elevating water levels further and increasing the risk of significant inland floods.

Moody's RMS Event Response released an insured loss estimate for Major Hurricane Helene, to find out more, click here.

Tuesday, October 8: 12:00 UTC

To help our clients during this fast-developing 2024 North America hurricane season, and as Florida anticipates the landfall of dangerous Major Hurricane Milton, Jeff Waters, CCRA, CCRMP introduces newly updated Moody’s RMS HWind forecasting products in a new blog – featuring new combined (forecast and trailing) loss-producing footprints.

With this next phase of HWind innovation now available on Moody’s Intelligent Risk Platform, Jeff explains how loss-producing HWind forecasting products are now integrated within the Risk Modeler application, to support bulk footprint analyses (also known as Ensemble Conditional Exceedance Probability or CEP), and enable automation of event response processes via an API.

As we know (re)insurers, policyholders, and investors' expectations for timely, accurate information during and following real-time events at an all-time high during major events, find out how these new developments can help ensure better data-driven decisions - before, during, and after an event happens, in Jeff's new blog here: "More Accurate Real-Time Hurricane Loss Estimates with HWind Forecasting Footprints."

Tuesday, October 8: 10:30 UTC

Sarah Hartley and James Cosgrove from Moody's RMS Event Response have just published a blog entitled "Stark Warnings for Major Hurricane Milton" as Florida county and state officials issue dire warnings about the incoming major hurricane and its potential impact on Florida. 

With less than 48 hours until a potential landfall, preparations for the storm are well underway, with State of Emergency declarations and evacuation orders in place, for an evacuation that could be as large as for Hurricane Irma in 2017. On the current status of Major Hurricane Milton, and its prospects for the days ahead, Sarah and James stated:

Milton is expected to encounter strong vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment on its approach to the Florida Gulf Coast and is expected to weaken slightly as it nears landfall, but is it still currently forecast to make landfall as a powerful Category 3 major hurricane on the west coast of Florida late local time on Wednesday, October 9. The exact timing, location, and intensity at landfall remains uncertain.

Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected to impact the west coast of Florida near where the center makes landfall and crosses the Peninsula, and a life-threatening storm surge could occur along portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, especially in areas to the south of the where the center makes landfall. Debris and damaged structures from Helene, and clear-up operations will be vulnerable.

Read their full blog here.